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5 reasons to be bullish EUR/USD

Earlier post on this is here:

DB has since expanded on their reasoning.

Analysts see 5 points arguing for EUR/USD targeting 1.10 by Q2 and to rise to 1.15 at year end. In summary (very brief summary, but you’ll get the idea):

1. The monetary policy cycle favours the euro.
A blended metric of 5-year real and nominal rates already points to
EUR/USD fair value above 1.10

  • The inflation gap between
    Europe and the US suggests an even further narrowing in rate
    differentials this year
  • More broadly, the relative cycle
    favours a Fed pivot before the ECB.

2. European flows turning very positive.
Given the collapse in gas prices the euro terms of trade have
completely unwound the deterioration of 2022 and the end of winter will
remove a final source of risk premium in European energy supply.

3. China reopening should also help the euro.
The euro is a pro-cyclical currency and turning points over the last
decade have coincided with a turn in the external growth cycle

4. The market is sitting very long USD cash.
… dollar
overvaluation across PPP, interest rate differentials and global growth
metrics

5. The dollar has historically not weakened while a high-yielder.
Inflection points have historically also required a trough in US
equities and a shift from US yield curve flattening to steepening. These
observations argue against getting overtly bearish on the dollar until
the Fed declares mission accomplished, marking a shift from a
late-cycle/recessionary environment to growth.

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